Wednesday, November 18, 2009

MLS® Home Sales Forecast Increased for 2009 & 2010

Despite the lingering recessionary nature of our economy, real estate activity across Canada in 2009 has far exceeded the expectations of most. Following record sales in the months of July, September and October, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised their 2009 and 2010 forecasts for MLS® home sales across Canada.
Canadian MLS® home sales for 2009 are now forecasted to increase by 6.6% from 2008 to a total of 460,200 units. This revised sales forecast for 2009 is equivalent to annual sales achieved back in 2004 but is below levels attained for the years 2005 through 2007. For 2010, CREA now forecasts that national home sales will increase by 7%. Should this 7% increase materialize, 2010 will be the second highest year of sales on record for Canadian home sales.
Like the rest of Canada, MLS® home sales here in the Georgian Triangle continue to increase significantly. Unit residential sales in October were up 71% while revenue increased 84%. Sales at the end of the 1st quarter were off 47% from the prior year. By mid-year the shortfall had been reduced to 23% and by the end of the 3rd quarter, the shortfall in year-to-date sales had been completely reversed and we were ahead of 2008's results.
Monthly activity in November has continued to remain exceedingly strong. As of today's date MLS® sales in the Georgian Triangle total $30.7 million a full $10 million or 48% more than November last year with 13 days yet remaining in the month.
My own personal forecast is that MLS® sales in our area will reach $500 million or better for the year, up by 14% or more from the $438 million worth of properties sold in all of 2008. Single family home sales for the year will remain constant with those in 2008. Vacant land sales are off 12% and will remain so for the balance of the year. Conversely, condominium sales year-to-date are up 12% driven by increased sales in the $200K to $500K price range. In summary, real estate sales activity in 2009 has exceeded everyone's expectations with robust sales in most markets across Canada including ours. Renewed consumer confidence and low mortage rates are helping to drive sales. In our market the migration of retirees from the GTA is also a large factor in our success and this trend is unlikely to abate any time soon.

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Rick relocated to Collingwood from Toronto in 1985 through a transfer with Goodyear Canada. In 1987 Rick was recruited by a major client of Goodyear’s, managing their Canadian business based in Barrie before moving to Chicago in 1992 as Vice President of Sales & Marketing. Upon returning to Canada in 1996, Rick ran an industrial products manufacturing company in Stratford, Ontario. In 1998 Rick returned to Collingwood with his two children. Rick is a licensed real estate Broker with Royal LePAGE Locations North in Collingwood and holds his MVA designation (Market Value Appraiser-Residential). He is an active volunteer in the community serving several years on the Board of Directors with the Collingwood Chamber of Commerce as Treasurer, 6 years on the Board of Directors for the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® of which he is the Past President (2008) and currently serves on a committee with the Ontario Real Estate Association. Rick is a diverse executive manager with extensive experience in strategic planning, manufacturing, finance, human resources and quality assurance management.