Real estate activity for the first two months of 2019 across the Southern
Georgina Bay region has shown an improvement from one year ago with stronger
sales in specific segments of the market.
Total year-to-date MLS® dollar sales as reported by the Southern
Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) through the end of February
totals $110.3 million, an increase of $20.2 million or 22% from the $90.1
million in sales for first two months of 2018.
While on the surface this number shows a more robust real estate market
in our area from a year ago, year-to-date sales are $14.0 million or 11% below
the level of MLS® sales for the two first months of 2017. Once again it is worth noting that these
results are for residential MLS® sales only including single family homes,
condominiums and vacant lots. Commercial
properties, farms etc. are excluded.
While year-to-date MLS® dollar sales
have increased significantly (22%) over the first two months of 2018, unit
sales remain relatively weak. Through
the end of February MLS® unit sales total 208 individual properties, 10 units
more or just 5% above last year. The
chart belowshows year-to-date 2019 versus 2018 sales
across the various price segments of the market with increases in the upper
price ranges most notably $500,000 to $799,999 and from $1.5 million and
higher. The key segment of the market
wherein there is the greatest demand is down 11% from one year ago with 85
sales so far in 2019 compared to 96 last year.
Some of the current weakness in sales
is seasonal in nature. Sales start to
ramp up in January following the end of the holiday season and typically peak
April through June when properties start to look their best during the spring
and early summer weather. Inventory
levels of properties listed for sale on the MLS® system also ramp up during
this period, potential buyers have more to choose from but competition among
sellers is also stronger. Overall we experienced a general shortfall of inventory listed for sale
on our local MLS® in 2016 through to
early 2018 at which time the market started to show signs of slowing down.
While that situation exists in some
price segments of the market today, it is not universal across the region. As of this report, the amount of inventory
listed for sale in the various price segments varies greatly. The following is a summary of residential
properties listed for sale by price range and the "months of
inventory" shown is based on the current rate of sales that we have
experienced in these price segments over the past year.
Price Range Current
# of Active Listings Months of Inventory
Under $300,000 48 1.8
$300,000 to $499,999 152 2.1
$500,000 to $799,999 182 4.8
$800,000 to $999,999 54 7.0
$1.000 to $1.499 Million 48 8.7
$1.500 to $1.999 Million 32 29.9
$2 Million + 29 25.0
What does this mean to sellers and buyers? While year-to-date residential sales between
$500,000 to $799,999 are up 68% from a year ago, there is currently well over 4
months worth of inventory listed for sale to choose from. Similarly, sales in the $1.5 to $1.9 million
dollar range are 10 times greater than in the first two months of 2018 yet with
32 active MLS® listings that is almost 30 months worth of inventory while
properties listed for sale priced above $2 million represents 25 months of
inventory.
The level of MLS® listed inventory overall however is showing signs of
trending upwards which is encouraging for those looking to buy especially in
the lower price segments. New MLS®
residential listings in January were up 8.6% from one year ago and totalled 190
units. New listing activity then
slipped in February totalling 192 properties down 10.7% from 215 new listings
that came to market in February of last year.
There is no question that we have had a harsh winter with adverse
snowfalls and bad driving conditions, hardly ideal conditions for buyers to
view properties for sale and many sellers have held off listing their home until conditions improve with the arrival of
spring. Many sellers may also be fearful
that they have perhaps missed the window of opportunity to maximize the sale
price of their home or condominium. I
have in fact had clients of my own who live in the Greater Toronto Area state
that selling their home now will net them a lower price than 12 months ago.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales across our market total 90
units an increase of 29 properties or 48% more than the first two months of
2018. Again this is primarily driven by strong
sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 price range as well as the strength of the
upper end market $1.5 million and higher.
The Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach are the only municipalities in the
region with single family home sales equal to or greater than last year, all
others ie: Cleaview, Collingwood, the Municipality of Meaford and Grey
Highlands are all down anywhere from 25% to over 60% in home sales year-to-date. Yes the number of units is small and the
winter has made property showings difficult but we are not the only area where
sales are down and it's not all due to "new" home sales as some would
claim.
With respect to the local condominium market, year-to-date sales of 23
units is down a modest 3 properties or 11% from a year ago. The demand for condominiums in our area
continues to grow and this is not unique to southern Georgian Bay. A report just released by
"Teranet"
who is a leading provider of land registry services and real estate data insights
across Canada found that in 2017 over 25% of residential real estate
transactions across the country were for condominium properties. Condominium ownership is popular with both
baby boomers looking to downsize with a less maintenance intensive lifestyle as
well as for first time home buyers that are finding themselves priced out of
single family home ownership. After
looking at the residential sales data for our market in 2018 I found that MLS®
condominium re-sales in our market accounted for 24% of the 1,800 plus MLS®
residential sales in our region last year.
Year-to-date sales reflect that for the first two months of 2019, condo
sales have dipped to 20% of all residential sales in the area but this is
likely to change in the months ahead as a significant number of area condos get
leased our for the ski season and with that season winding down we are seeing more condo units come onto
the market for sale. As of this report
there are 110 active MLS® condo listed for sale which represents three months
of inventory. As previously mentioned, several
new condominium projects in the area are adding additional new condominium units
into the market primarily in Collingwood, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach
and the sale of these newly constructed units generally do not flow through the
local MLS® system. For further
information on the area's condo market visit my website www.rickcrouch.realtor for a copy of my
latest "Condo Communique´" newsletter detailing the 2018 Southern Georgian
Bay Condominium Market.
Summary
As reported in my last newsletter , the market has shifted, buyers and
mortgage lenders are both being cautious.
With the odd exception, the days of multiple offers and properties
selling for well over their asking price are gone. To restore buyer confidence as well as to
help them meet the tighter lending rules two things need to happen. First we need to see an upturn in the number
of properties listed for sale and the arrival of spring will no doubt bring
that about as it typically does.
Cautious buyers and those that require mortgage financing need more
choices of what is available to purchase.
With the heated market conditions we experienced in 2016 through to
early 2018, too many buyers got caught up in the multiple offer melee and in
many cases I personally feel they over paid. Banks are fearful of buyers over extending
themselves and on occasion financing is not approved if the appraisal comes in
less than what the buyer is willing to pay. More inventory will further serve to balance
the market evening the playing field for both buyers and sellers. Lastly, sellers and to some degree the real
estate community needs to accept the fact that the market has changed and listing
a property for sale with an asking price that is significantly above fair
market value is unlikely to attract a willing buyer(s) nor will it help that
buyer(s) to secure mortgage financing if they need it.
As with other facets of our profession I watch our MLS® system activity
closely on a daily basis and I will continue to report on meaningful data that
is applicable to the real estate market in our area throughout the year. In the meantime if you have any questions
please feel free to contact me at any time. A Free PDF copy of this Market Report and others is available on my website at: www.rickcrouch.realtor.
Waterfront properties in the southern Georgian Bay area make up a significant part of our real estate market. In 2018 the sale of waterfront homes and condominium properties in Collingwood and surrounding municipalities totalled 111 properties with a combined value of just over $85 million. These sales ranged anywhere from modest cabins priced in the low $200,000 range to luxury high end homes over $2 million.
Growing up as a kid I was introduced to the cottage lifestyle on Manitoulin Island where my mother was born. My grandfather, a farmer on Manitoulin built a small cottage on the water and every Saturday after the farm chores were done we would make the three mile or so drive to the cottage to spend the balance of the weekend swimming and fishing with evening campfires. Not everyone is attracted to those activities but many are and owing a waterfront property is a dream for countless Canadians especially for those living in urban centres like Toronto that long for a cottage property to escape to.
Thinking about where we want to be five to ten years from now, my wife and I started to look two years ago at waterfront homes that were for sale on Mantoulin Island. My cottage is just that, a cottage (Bottom photo) versus a full time home and it will be left to my kids. Having not seen an existing property for sale that we liked, we started top contemplate building from scratch. Last summer we found the perfect property listed for sale which was an estate sale. A 1.5 acre waterfront lot nicely treed situated on the largest lake on Manitoulin, Lake Manitou and just 20 minutes from the cottage and other amenities. Not only was the property exactly what we wanted but it had some added benefits. The driveway and hydro was already installed along with a large 24' X 32' garage all of which would be $100,000 or more to replace. See accompanying photos.
As a REALTOR® I quickly did my own due diligence with the municipality and others which allowed us to go in with a cash offer, no conditions and a short closing date. The offer was accepted so we now own not one but two piece of waterfront real estate on Manitoulin Island.
If buying a waterfront or other recreational property is on you wish list, please feel free to Contact Me and I will be delighted to share my experience as a cottage owner and real estate Broker to help you find you piece of paradise in southern Georgian Bay.
