Why You Should Ignore Average Home Prices Reported By The Media

  I must confess that ever since I got into real estate I have had a love affair with statistics.  In my prior corporate jobs I was expected every month to know and explain the "numbers" for the businesses that I was running from sales budgets to profit or loss statements.  Since entering real estate, I am always being stopped in the grocery store or on the street by people asking how's the real estate market and most of my peers regard me as being the "stats guy."  When asked about how the market is performing I feel people are entitled to more than just an unsubstantiated answer such as "great" or "it's booming" or "things are a little slow right now" and so on.  That's why my Facebook page and this blog will always contain a fair amount of statistical information about both local real market activity and the market across Canada as well.

  For years I have had a real problem with the term "average price."  It's a meaningless number yet it is a number touted all too often by the media. In my opinion it misleads the public about the equity they have in their homes suggesting that changes to "average" home prices in various markets reflects increases or decreases in the value people have in their houses. Nothing could be further from the truth.  Our local real estate association the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® of which I am a Past President has always refrained from including "average" pricing statistics in our media releases.

  The average price is simply obtained by dividing the total dollar volume of sales for a given period such as a month by the number of sales in the month. Example:  During this past January there were 24 single family homes sold in Collingwood yielding an "average" sale price of $409,127, which represents a 2.1% increase over the "average" price from December.  If I merely add two more sales to January one at $250,000 and one at $300,000, the "average" price slips from $409,127 to $398,800.  That's a drop in the "average" price of 2.5%.  Does than mean your Collingwood home dropped in value by 2.5% or over $10,000?  Of course not thus this highlights the pointless nature of discussing "average" prices.  

  To better address the issue of price appreciation or depreciation, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) developed the MLS® HPI (Home Price Index), a concept modelled after the Consumer Price Index.  The MLS® HPI measures the rate at which housing prices change over time taking into account the type of homes sold. Before the original HPI was introduced in 1996,  REALTORS® and the public relied on monthly average pricing statistics to understand trends in housing prices.  Averages, however, can be very misleading as I have demonstrated since the quantity and quality of the properties sold in any given area change over time for any number of reasons.  As a result, average prices can fluctuate dramatically, making the housing market appear unstable. 

  The next time you hear the media talking about "average" home prices as television newscasts often do, my recommendation is to change the channel.  Your home is perhaps the most valuable asset you own.  To get a true sense as to it's current value, contact a REALTOR® and ask them to prepare a detailed comparable market analysis showing you what you home is worth based on other comparable sales in your area.  The MLS® Home Price Index is a good indicator as to the changes taking place in the market but even then it's changes over time and one or two months doesn't reflect a trend that you should be concerned with.   

  If you have any question about this topic and any other real estate related issues, please feel free to Contact Me, I would love to offer you help without obligation in meeting your real estate goals.   

Camera Drones - A Cool Gadget But It Comes With Potential Liabilities

  As with many things if life these days, real estate is an ever changing entity.  Shifting economic and market conditions, revised legislative requirements and the changing whims of buyers and sellers all play a role in impacting how we market and sell properties. 

  Perhaps the biggest change of all in our industry however has come from advances in technology.  One of the latest technological breakthroughs has been the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's) commonly referred to as drones.   Much the same as the GoPro camera craze that hit the market a few years ago, drones are quickly becoming the rage with photo enthusiasts looking to take their picture taking creativity to new heights and they were one of the hot gift items this past Christmas.

  Myself along with others in my office were some of the early adopters in using drone photography to market properties.  The picture on the header of this blog site was shot with a drone and the accompanying photo is a drone hovering in the yard of one of my listings.  Drones are excellent way to not only showcase a home, but they also serve to show the home's neighbourhood and surrounding area which is especially effective in a rural setting.  There is a dark side however to using drones commercially and this comes in the form of potential liabilities for property and or other damages resulting from the improper use of drones.

  If you are thinking about purchasing a drone here are some things to consider. First Transport Canada requires that any person(s) using a drone for commercial purposes such as aerial real estate photography must apply for a Special Flight Operations Certificate and these are apparently not easy to get.  Transport Canada also requires that you have a minimum of $100,000 in liability insurance which in today's world is a pittance, $1 million in liability insurance would be better.  As REALTORS® we are required by law to carry Errors and Omissions insurance and this does not cover drones.

  Even if you are thinking about getting a drone for recreational or pleasure use, don't be taken in by all the hype, online videos etc.  There is a new drone coming to market available for pre-order now by the name of Lily.  To launch the Lily drone you simply toss it into the air and it will follow you down a ski slope or trail on your dirt bike.  It sounds cool right? The only problem is, most ski resorts including our own Blue Mountain has strictly banned the use of personal drones on the property and commercially flown drones require their consent. 

  Camera drones open up a whole new world of picture and video taking possibilities. Our real estate brokerage Royal LePAGE Locations North has decided that drone photography is best left to the experts, those that adhere to all of the legislative and insurance requirements that have been established governing this new device.

2015 Another Record Year For Area Real Estate

  During 2015, real estate activity across southern Georgian Bay remained very robust.  Despite a sluggish first quarter due to the severity of our 2014/2015 winter and a significant reduction in the amount of inventory listed for sale, 2015 was another year of record MLS® sales in our region.  

  MLS® sales for 2015 reported by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® for the markets we serve totalled $804.9 million, an increase of 21% over 2014.  Individual unit sales reflected a 15% increase with 2,386 properties sold in 2015 compared to 2,080 in 2014.  During the past year, we continued to see considerable strength in the upper end price segments of our market which explains why the increase in dollar sales of 21% outpaced the unit sales increase of 15%.  Sales over $500,000 were up 26% in 2015 with a total of 327 properties sold compared to 260 sold in 2014.  Of particular note, MLS® unit sales between $600,000 & $700,000 increased 36% with 80 sales reported.  MLS® sales between $800,000 & $900,000 totalled 32 properties, an increase of 39% while sales over $1 million of 48 properties reflected a 23% increased over the prior year and we expect this trend will continue.

 Conversely to the 15% increase we saw in MLS® sales during 2015, the number of new MLS® listings that came onto the market in 2015 reflected a 15% decrease from one year ago.  During 2015, a total of 4,347 new MLS® listings came to market compared to 5,129 in 2014.  To put this in perspective, 55% of the properties listed for sale on our local MLS® system sold in 2015 compared to 40% of MLS® listed properties selling in 2014.  On numerous occasions, properties that were well priced drew multiple offers sometimes selling for their full list price or higher.  This was particularly prevalent in the $250,000 to $400,000 price range where demand seemed to be the strongest.  This phenomena is more commonly found in the hyper active Greater Toronto real estate market but with a strong demand and reduced housing inventory, the scenario played out often in our area last year shifting the market more in favour of sellers than buyers.

 Single family home sales across our region were up 11% in 2015 with 1,742 MLS® sales reported while area MLS® sales for condominiums of 474 units represented a 7% increase over 2014.  Vacant land MLS® sales which had been languishing in recent years saw a resurgence as well in 2015 with total MLS® vacant land sales up 30% from the prior year.   

  Most area municipalities saw a year-over-year increase is single family home sales, most notable of which was WasagaBeach.  MLS® sales in Wasaga Beach totalled 568 homes, an increase of 28% from 2014.  This was followed by MLS® home sales in the Blue Mountains which were up 17%.   The Municipality of Meaford saw a 12% increase while single family home sales in Collingwood were up a more modest 5%.  By comparison, Clearview Township and the Municipality of Grey Highlands had decreased single family home sales of -5% and -14%  respectively in 2015.  

  It is important to note that the aforementioned statistics reflect MLS® market activity as reported by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® and do not include sales made directly by builders and or developers of non-MLS® listed properties.  Most area municipalities have new single family home and or condominium projects currently under way which when added to the strong MLS® sales activity we are experiencing, further illustrates the allure our area has.  This will further serve to drive the demand for real estate as we head into 2016.  Notwithstanding a downturn in our overall economy, significantly higher interest rates or other as yet unforeseen factors, the only issue we seemingly face which could slow down sales is the lack of available inventory to meet the growing demand.  

There has never been a better time to maximize the equity you have in your area property. Contact me for a no obligation assessment as to the value of your home, chalet or condominium.