Real estate activity for
the 1st quarter of 2019 across the Southern Georgian Bay region has shown some improvement
from the slowdown we experienced in the second half of 2018 with stronger sales in specific
portions of the market particularly in the higher price segments.
MLS® dollar sales in both January and
February were at increased levels from the same time last year but softened slightly
in March with sales for the month of $87.6 million down 5.2% from March 2018. Despite softer sales in March, total 1st
quarter residential dollar sales through the MLS® system of the
Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) totalled $201.9 million, an
increase of $12.9 million or 6.8% more than the 1st quarter of 2018. Once again it is worth noting
that these results are for residential MLS® sales only including single family homes, condominiums
and vacant lots. Commercial properties,
farms etc. are excluded as are sales of
new homes made directly by developers outside of the local MLS®
system. 
While year-to-date MLS® dollar sales have
increased over the first three months of 2018, unit sales in 2019 through the
end of March are below last year. MLS®
unit sales in the 1st quarter totalled 386 properties,
down 10.2% from the 430 units sold in the 1st quarter of 2018. Sales start to ramp up in
January following the end of the holiday season and typically peak April through June when
properties start to look their best during the spring and early summer. Inventory levels of
properties listed for sale on the MLS® system also ramp up during this period, potential buyers
have more to choose from come spring but competition among sellers is also stronger. We have experienced a relatively harsh winter
which has made for less than ideal driving conditions,
this combined with cold temperatures has hampered property showings which is at least
partially responsible for the slow start to this year.
Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales
across our market total 279 units a decrease of 5 homes or 1.7% less than
the first three months of 2018. At the
same time we are seeing stronger single family
home sales in some area municipalities around the region which are reflected on the
accompanying chart. MLS® home sales in
Collingwood total 66 properties up 34.6% while sales in the
Blue Mountains of 48 homes is up a modest 6.6% from one year ago. All other area
municipalities have year-to-date single family home sales that are close to or slightly below the 1st
quarter of 2018.
While overall year-to-date MLS® dollar volume
through the end of March is ahead of last year and unit sales are down,
certain price levels are showing some significant gains from one year ago particularly in the
upper price segments of the market.
Sales in these upper price ranges is what is driving total MLS®
dollar sales making up for the shortfall in unit sales. Sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 range
total 108 properties up 28.5% from one year ago. Sales from $1 to $1.499 million are up
slightly with 13 sales this year compared to 12 in the 1st quarter of
2018. Sales between $1.5 to
$1.999 million total 8 units which is four times greater than the sale of 2 properties sold in the
first three months of last years.
Similarly sales over $2 million have doubled this yearwith 4 MLS® sales
reported versus just 2 sold at this time last year. These numbers clearly reflect that our
market continues to move more upscale especially in the Blue Mountains where almost 50% of sales
above $750,000 in our market area take place.
Sales in the lower price segments of our
market continue to remain weaker than last year particularly in the $100,000 to $500,000 price
ranges. First it is important to note
that properties priced under the $300,000 mark are getting
harder and harder to find unless they are perhaps a smaller and older entry level home or
condominium. Sales under $100,000 in the
1st quarter of 2018 totalled 32 units whereas
this year there we only 13 sales. During
the first three months of 2018 there were 181 MLS® sales
in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category this year the number has dropped 12% to a total
of 159 properties sold. Properties in
these price ranges represent a prime segment of our
market where demand is strong but the inventory of available properties listed for sale is low and
we suspect this trend may continue throughout 2019.
Overall we continue to experience a general
shortfall of inventory listed for sale on our local MLS® system. Year-to-date, the number of new listings for
residential properties totals 674 units which is a modest 3%
increase above the number of new residential listing that came to market in the 1st quarter
of 2018. While demand still exceeds supply,
properties listed for sale are lingering on the
market longer before selling. For the
1st quarter of 2018 the average time-on-market before selling
was 47 days, for the first three months of 2019 that average number has increased to 56
days. The only exception to the
inventory shortage is in the upper price ranges of the market. Overall our MLS® system has 4.6 months of
available inventory listed for
sale. For residential properties priced in the $1
to $1.5 million range there is 8.5 months of available inventory while
above $1.5 million there is 26.6 months of inventory listed for sale. For buyers looking to purchase
an upper end luxury home or ski chalet in the area there is an abundance of properties to
choose from making this a good time to buy the property that meets your needs and
budget. The level of MLS® listed
inventory overall however is showing signs of trending upwards which is encouraging for
those looking to buy especially in the lower price segments. Listing activity in both January and March
was above last year’s level in these two
months.
Price Range Current # of Active Listings Months of Inventory
Under $300,000 55 2.0
$300,000 to $499,999 191 2.7
$500,000 to $799,999 220 5.7
$800,000 to $999,999 60 7.8
$1.000 to $1.499 Million 57 11.4
$1.500 to $1.999 Million 33 32.6
$ 2 Million +2218.3
MLS® condominium sales during the 1st quarter
total 68 units, a decrease of 23% from the first three months of 2018
when 89 condominium units were sold.
Some of this decrease stems from a significant number
of new condominium units being built and sold in the area by developers which are not
sold through the local MLS® system. A
number of condominium properties are also rented
out for the ski season and as the season winds down with spring now here some of these
condominium properties will undoubtedly get listed in the coming months.
In summary, overall we have experienced a slight shift in
the market. Sales are softer yet prices
thus far have remained relatively
stable. Buyers some of whom must meet
tighten mortgage rules and lenders are both being
cautious. With the odd exception, the
days of multiple offers with properties regularly
selling for well over their asking price are substantially diminished. To restore buyer confidence
as well as to help them meet the tighter lending rules two things need to happen. First we need to see an upturn in the number
of properties listed for sale and the arrival of spring will no
doubt bring that about as it typically does.
Cautious buyers and those that require mortgage
financing need more choices of what is available to purchase. Further, both buyers and sellers
may need to adjust their expectations in terms of what they as buyers can afford to pay whereas sellers may need to
accept more list at more realistic asking prices that are consistent with
today’s current market conditions. With
the heated market conditions we experienced in 2016
through to and including early 2018, many buyers got caught up in the multiple offer melee. More inventory listed for sale will further
serve to balance the market levelling the playing field
for both buyers and sellers alike.
As we head into the spring market it will be
interesting to see how the overall level of real estate activity unfolds
through the balance of 2019. If you are
considering buying or selling in the months ahead I would
be delighted to discuss your particular needs and what would be the best strategy in helping
you meet you goals and objectives relative to real estate in the Southern Georgian Bay area.
Please feel free to Contact Me of you have any questions or to discuss you specific real estate needs and or goals in 2019 or beyond.
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