1st Quarter 2019 Southern Georgian Bay MLS® Market Report -

  Real estate activity for the 1st quarter of 2019 across the Southern Georgian Bay region has shown some improvement from the slowdown we experienced in the second half of 2018 with stronger sales in specific portions of the market particularly in the higher price segments.

  MLS® dollar sales in both January and February were at increased levels from the same time last year but softened slightly in March with sales for the month of $87.6 million down 5.2% from March 2018.  Despite softer sales in March, total 1st quarter residential dollar sales through the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) totalled $201.9 million, an increase of $12.9 million or 6.8% more than the 1st quarter of 2018.  Once again it is worth noting that these results are for residential MLS® sales only including single family homes, condominiums and vacant lots.  Commercial properties, farms etc. are excluded as are sales of new homes made directly by developers outside of the local MLS®

system.

  While year-to-date MLS® dollar sales have increased over the first three months of 2018, unit sales in 2019 through the end of March are below last year.  MLS® unit sales in the 1st quarter totalled 386 properties, down 10.2% from the 430 units sold in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Sales start to ramp up in January following the end of the holiday season and typically peak April through June when properties start to look their best during the spring and early summer.  Inventory levels of properties listed for sale on the MLS® system also ramp up during this period, potential buyers have more to choose from come spring but competition among sellers is also stronger.  We have experienced a relatively harsh winter which has made for less than ideal driving conditions, this combined with cold temperatures has hampered property showings which is at least partially responsible for the slow start to this year.

  Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales across our market total 279 units a decrease of 5 homes or 1.7% less than the first three months of 2018.  At the same time we are seeing stronger single family home sales in some area municipalities around the region which are reflected on the accompanying chart.  MLS® home sales in Collingwood total 66 properties up 34.6% while sales in the Blue Mountains of 48 homes is up a modest 6.6% from one year ago.  All other area municipalities have year-to-date single family home sales that are close to or slightly below the 1st quarter of 2018.

  While overall year-to-date MLS® dollar volume through the end of March is ahead of last year and unit sales are down, certain price levels are showing some significant gains from one year ago particularly in the upper price segments of the market.  Sales in these upper price ranges is what is driving total MLS® dollar sales making up for the shortfall in unit sales.  Sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 range total 108 properties up 28.5% from one year ago.  Sales from $1 to $1.499 million are up slightly with 13 sales this year compared to 12 in the 1st quarter of 2018.  Sales between $1.5 to $1.999 million total 8 units which is four times greater than the sale of 2 properties sold in the first three months of last years.  Similarly sales over $2 million have doubled this yearwith 4 MLS® sales reported versus just 2 sold at this time last year.  These numbers  clearly reflect that our market continues to move more upscale especially in the Blue Mountains where almost 50% of sales above $750,000 in our market area take place.  Sales in the lower price segments of our market continue to remain weaker than last year particularly in the $100,000 to $500,000 price ranges.  First it is important to note that properties priced under the $300,000 mark are getting harder and harder to find unless they are perhaps a smaller and older entry level home or condominium.  Sales under $100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2018 totalled 32 units whereas this year there we only 13 sales.  During the first three months of 2018 there were 181 MLS® sales in the $300,000 to $500,000 price category this year the number has dropped 12% to a total of 159 properties sold.  Properties in these price ranges represent a prime segment of our market where demand is strong but the inventory of available properties listed for sale is low and we suspect this trend may continue throughout 2019.

  Overall we continue to experience a general shortfall of inventory listed for sale on our local MLS® system.  Year-to-date, the number of new listings for residential properties totals 674 units which is a modest 3% increase above the number of new residential listing that came to market in the 1st quarter of 2018.  While demand still exceeds supply, properties listed for sale are lingering on the market longer before selling.  For the 1st quarter of 2018 the average time-on-market before selling was 47 days, for the first three months of 2019 that average number has increased to 56 days.  The only exception to the inventory shortage is in the upper price ranges of the market.  Overall our MLS® system has 4.6 months of available inventory listed for

sale.  For residential properties priced in the $1 to $1.5 million range there is 8.5 months of available inventory while above $1.5 million there is 26.6 months of inventory listed for sale.  For buyers looking to purchase an upper end luxury home or ski chalet in the area there is an abundance of properties to choose from making this a good time to buy the property that meets your needs and budget.  The level of MLS® listed inventory overall however is showing signs of trending upwards which is encouraging for those looking to buy especially in the lower price segments.  Listing activity in both January and March was above last year’s level in these two

months.

Price Range   Current # of Active Listings  Months of Inventory

Under $300,000                                  55                                                  2.0

$300,000 to $499,999                                                             191                                                 2.7

$500,000 to $799,999                       220                                                 5.7

$800,000 to $999,999                         60                                                 7.8

$1.000 to $1.499 Million                      57                                               11.4

$1.500 to $1.999 Million                      33                                               32.6

$ 2 Million +2218.3

  MLS® condominium sales during the 1st quarter total 68 units, a decrease of 23% from the first three months of 2018 when 89 condominium units were sold.  Some of this decrease stems from a significant number of new condominium units being built and sold in the area by developers which are not sold through the local MLS® system.  A number of condominium properties are also rented out for the ski season and as the season winds down with spring now here some of these condominium properties will undoubtedly get listed in the coming months.

  In summary, overall we have experienced a slight shift in the market.  Sales are softer yet prices thus far have remained relatively stable.  Buyers some of whom must meet tighten mortgage rules and lenders are both being cautious.  With the odd exception, the days of multiple offers with properties regularly selling for well over their asking price are substantially diminished.  To restore buyer confidence as well as to help them meet the tighter lending rules two things need to happen.  First we need to see an upturn in the number of properties listed for sale and the arrival of spring will no doubt bring that about as it typically does.  Cautious buyers and those that require mortgage financing need more choices of what is available to purchase.  Further, both buyers and sellers may need to adjust their expectations in terms of what they as buyers can afford to pay whereas sellers may need to accept more list at more realistic asking prices that are consistent with today’s current market conditions.  With the heated market conditions we experienced in 2016 through to and including early 2018, many buyers got caught up in the multiple offer melee.  More inventory listed for sale will further serve to balance the market levelling the playing field for both buyers and sellers alike.

  As we head into the spring market it will be interesting to see how the overall level of real estate activity unfolds through the balance of 2019.  If you are considering buying or selling in the months ahead I would be delighted to discuss your particular needs and what would be the best strategy in helping you meet you goals and objectives relative to real estate in the Southern Georgian Bay area.  

  Please feel free to Contact Me of you have any questions or to discuss you specific real estate needs and or goals in 2019 or beyond.

   

Southern Georgian Bay Real Estate Market Report - February 2019

  Real estate activity for the first two months of 2019 across the Southern Georgina Bay region has shown an improvement from one year ago with stronger sales in specific segments of the market.

  Total year-to-date MLS® dollar sales as reported by the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) through the end of February totals $110.3 million, an increase of $20.2 million or 22% from the $90.1 million in sales for first two months of 2018.  While on the surface this number shows a more robust real estate market in our area from a year ago, year-to-date sales are $14.0 million or 11% below the level of MLS® sales for the two first months of 2017.  Once again it is worth noting that these results are for residential MLS® sales only including single family homes, condominiums and vacant lots.  Commercial properties, farms etc. are excluded. 

  

  While year-to-date MLS® dollar sales have increased significantly (22%) over the first two months of 2018, unit sales remain relatively weak.  Through the end of February MLS® unit sales total 208 individual properties, 10 units more or just 5% above last year.  The chart belowshows year-to-date 2019 versus 2018 sales across the various price segments of the market with increases in the upper price ranges most notably $500,000 to $799,999 and from $1.5 million and higher.  The key segment of the market wherein there is the greatest demand is down 11% from one year ago with 85 sales so far in 2019 compared to 96 last year.

  Some of the current weakness in sales is seasonal in nature.  Sales start to ramp up in January following the end of the holiday season and typically peak April through June when properties start to look their best during the spring and early summer weather.  Inventory levels of properties listed for sale on the MLS® system also ramp up during this period, potential buyers have more to choose from but competition among sellers is also stronger.  Overall we experienced a general shortfall of inventory listed for sale on our local MLS®  in 2016 through to early 2018 at which time the market started to show signs of slowing down.  

  

  While that situation exists in some price segments of the market today, it is not universal across the region.  As of this report, the amount of inventory listed for sale in the various price segments varies greatly.  The following is a summary of residential properties listed for sale by price range and the "months of inventory" shown is based on the current rate of sales that we have experienced in these price segments over the past year.

Price Range                            Current # of Active Listings                Months of Inventory

Under $300,000                                        48                                                  1.8

$300,000 to $499,999                             152                                                  2.1

$500,000 to $799,999                             182                                                  4.8

$800,000 to $999,999                               54                                                  7.0

$1.000 to $1.499 Million                            48                                                  8.7

$1.500 to $1.999 Million                            32                                                29.9

$2 Million +                                                29                                                25.0      

  What does this mean to sellers and buyers?  While year-to-date residential sales between $500,000 to $799,999 are up 68% from a year ago, there is currently well over 4 months worth of inventory listed for sale to choose from.  Similarly, sales in the $1.5 to $1.9 million dollar range are 10 times greater than in the first two months of 2018 yet with 32 active MLS® listings that is almost 30 months worth of inventory while properties listed for sale priced above $2 million represents 25 months of inventory.

  The level of MLS® listed inventory overall however is showing signs of trending upwards which is encouraging for those looking to buy especially in the lower price segments.  New MLS® residential listings in January were up 8.6% from one year ago and totalled 190 units.   New listing activity then slipped in February totalling 192 properties down 10.7% from 215 new listings that came to market in February of last year.  There is no question that we have had a harsh winter with adverse snowfalls and bad driving conditions, hardly ideal conditions for buyers to view properties for sale and many sellers have held off listing their home until conditions improve with the arrival of spring.  Many sellers may also be fearful that they have perhaps missed the window of opportunity to maximize the sale price of their home or condominium.  I have in fact had clients of my own who live in the Greater Toronto Area state that selling their home now will net them a lower price than 12 months ago.

  Year-to-date MLS® single family home sales across our market total 90 units an increase of 29 properties or 48% more than the first two months of 2018.  Again this is primarily driven by strong sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 price range as well as the strength of the upper end market $1.5 million and higher.  The Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach are the only municipalities in the region with single family home sales equal to or greater than last year, all others ie: Cleaview, Collingwood, the Municipality of Meaford and Grey Highlands are all down anywhere from 25% to over 60% in home sales year-to-date.  Yes the number of units is small and the winter has made property showings difficult but we are not the only area where sales are down and it's not all due to "new" home sales as some would claim. 

   With respect to the local condominium market, year-to-date sales of 23 units is down a modest 3 properties or 11% from a year ago.  The demand for condominiums in our area continues to grow and this is not unique to southern Georgian Bay.  A report just released by "Teranet" who is a leading provider of land registry services and real estate data insights across Canada found that in 2017 over 25% of residential real estate transactions across the country were for condominium properties.  Condominium ownership is popular with both baby boomers looking to downsize with a less maintenance intensive lifestyle as well as for first time home buyers that are finding themselves priced out of single family home ownership.  After looking at the residential sales data for our market in 2018 I found that MLS® condominium re-sales in our market accounted for 24% of the 1,800 plus MLS® residential sales in our region last year.  Year-to-date sales reflect that for the first two months of 2019, condo sales have dipped to 20% of all residential sales in the area but this is likely to change in the months ahead as a significant number of area condos get leased our for the ski season and with that season winding down we are seeing more condo units come onto the market for sale.  As of this report there are 110 active MLS® condo listed for sale which represents three months of inventory.  As previously mentioned, several new condominium projects in the area are adding additional new condominium units into the market primarily in Collingwood, the Blue Mountains and Wasaga Beach and the sale of these newly constructed units generally do not flow through the local MLS® system.  For further information on the area's condo market visit my website www.rickcrouch.realtor for a copy of my latest "Condo Communique´" newsletter detailing the 2018 Southern Georgian Bay Condominium Market. 

Summary

  As reported in my last newsletter , the market has shifted, buyers and mortgage lenders are both being cautious.  With the odd exception, the days of multiple offers and properties selling for well over their asking price are gone.  To restore buyer confidence as well as to help them meet the tighter lending rules two things need to happen.  First we need to see an upturn in the number of properties listed for sale and the arrival of spring will no doubt bring that about as it typically does.  Cautious buyers and those that require mortgage financing need more choices of what is available to purchase.  With the heated market conditions we experienced in 2016 through to early 2018, too many buyers got caught up in the multiple offer melee and in many cases I personally feel they over paid.  Banks are fearful of buyers over extending themselves and on occasion financing is not approved if the appraisal comes in less than what the buyer is willing to pay.  More inventory will further serve to balance the market evening the playing field for both buyers and sellers.  Lastly, sellers and to some degree the real estate community needs to accept the fact that the market has changed and listing a property for sale with an asking price that is significantly above fair market value is unlikely to attract a willing buyer(s) nor will it help that buyer(s) to secure mortgage financing if they need it.

  As with other facets of our profession I watch our MLS® system activity closely on a daily basis and I will continue to report on meaningful data that is applicable to the real estate market in our area throughout the year.  In the meantime if you have any questions please feel free to contact me at any time.  A Free PDF copy of this Market Report and others is available on my website at: www.rickcrouch.realtor.

2018 Year End Real Estate Market Review

  Following two years of record sales activity across the southern Georgian Bay area with MLS® dollar sales exceeding $1 billion, real estate activity slowed in 2018 as it did in many market across the country.  MLS® sales in our region for 2018 as reported through the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® (SGBAR) totalled $956.2 million a decrease in dollar volume of 9% and 8% for 2017 and 2016 respectively.  Further, MLS® unit sales were down 22% in 2018 versus 2017 and totalled 2,083 properties, 24% fewer than the number sold in 2016.  These results include MLS® sales of all property types including residential, commercial and farms.  (Click on each graph to enlarge).

  Personally, I watch the real estate statistics in our area and elsewhere very closely.  Our role as REALTORS® is to assist our clients in making informed and knowledgeable decisions with respect to their real estate buying and selling needs.  We need to know the numbers to best inform our clients and that is especiallyimportant when the market has shifted to a slower pace as it now has.  With both MLS® unit and dollar sales in 2018 below the levels we saw in 2017 and 2016 the question everyone is asking is why?  After reviewing all of the data for last year as well as for 2016 and 2017, I have made several observations. 

  First, we have seen the tightening up of mortgage lending rules along with the implementation of mortgage stress tests.  These changes affect first time buyers, those looking to move up to a larger property (mortgage) or renewing an existing mortgage.  Note, if you are renewing a mortgage with your current lender a stress test is not required.  This combined with the modest increase in lending rates and the implementation of a foreign buyers tax in Ontario and British Columbia all played at least some role in slowing the market down.  These steps were brought forth by both the federal and provincial governments hoping to cool very over heated markets in many areas of the country most notably Toronto and Vancouver.

  Of even greater significance is the lack of available housing inventory we have seen listed for sale over the past two to three years in our local market and elsewhere.  It is this lack of inventory couple with a strong buyer demand and low mortgage rates that has helped lead to properties listed for sale getting multiple offers and selling for over list price that has driven MLS® dollar sales and pricing through the roof while unit sales declined.  Also worth noting is the number of new homes and condominiums that are being built and these have without a doubt impacted the resale market with buyers choosing to buy "new" versus settling on a property that was 20 or 30 years old and needs updating for which they may not have the funds to do so.

   New MLS® listings in 2018 totalled 3,133 properties, a decrease of 4% from 2017 but a slight improvement from 2016 to 2017 when new listing activity fell by 5%.  Late in 2018 we saw the number of new listings coming to market increase slightly.  At the same time for sale signs lingered longer and price reductions started to emerge in our MLS® system more frequently. There were sellers who wanted to sell and buyers who wanted to buy but in many segments of the market there was still an insufficient amount of inventory to satisfy those needs.  At the same time and despite the strong market demand, the number of MLS® listings that expired increased 23% from 613 properties in 2017 to 752 in 2018.  In retrospect some sellers were perhaps too aggressive in their asking prices and their home or condo simply didn't sell as they stubbornly refused to a price reduction. 

  In May of last year we noticed the market had started to shift.  The number of multiple offers received on properties notably diminished as did the level of sales activity where homes were selling for well over their asking price.  The tighter lending rules no doubt caused some buyers to step back and I observed many deals in our Brokerage fall apart as the result of a buyer(s) being unable to get financing.  That is not to suggest that it was the buyer's credit rating that killed the deal.  With tighter lending rules banks and other lenders began taking a long look at the prices being paid by their buyer clients and in some cases the selling price was above the property's appraised value.  Regardless of what a buyer is willing to pay, if their bank doesn't see the same value then securing financing can become a real challenge.  Some buyers were also unwilling or simply couldn't afford to get into a bidding war and stepped away.

  MLS® single family homes sales in 2018 totalled 1,375 properties, down 19% from the

1,701 homes sold in 2017.  Every municipality in our area saw a decrease in the number of MLS® sales of single family homes, the reductions ranged from 11% to 23% from the number of homes sold in 2017 and are as follows:  Clearview Township and the Municipality of Meaford were both down -11%, the Blue Mountains saw a decrease in unit sales of 19% while Collingwood and Grey Highlands both showed decreased sales of 20% each.  Lastly single family home sales in Wasaga Beach were 23% less than the number sold in 2017.  Once again I will point out that these results do not include the sale of new or soon to be built homes made by developers which not go through the MLS® system.  A good example is the Indigo Estates subdivision in Collingwood where well over 100 homes were pre-sold before work on the subdivision's site even began.  

  Condominium sales in 2018 showed similar results with 434 units sold through MLS® compared to 523 sales in 2017, a decrease of 17%.  Of the total number of  MLS ® condo sales made in 2018, 51% were in Collingwood, 36% in the Blue Mountains, 8% in Wasaga Beach with the remaining 5% elsewhere in the area.  New condominium construction is one area of the market which remains very robust particularly in Collingwood and the Blue Mountains.  Many buyers from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are members of the area's ski and golf clubs and prefer a location close to those as well as to shopping and other area amenities.  Lastly, MLS® vacant land sales of 212 units were down 39% in 2018 versus the 349 vacant land units sold in 2017 largely due to the fact that several developments were sold out and inventory of vacant fully serviced lots available to purchase was extremely limited.  I sold the same lot in the new 3rd phase of Nipissing Ridge next to the Craigleith and Alpine ski clubs three times at ever increasing prices over an 18 month period which clearly reflects the demand we were seeing in 2016 and 2017.

  One area of the real estate market that I believe requires clarification concerns pricing.  When reporting on overall real estate activity and the state of the market, media reports often include a reference to "average" sale prices.  When the "average" sale price shifts up or down for any given municipality or the area in general, homeowners always draw the conclusion that their property has appreciated or depreciated in value accordingly and that is generally not the case.  According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, at the end of 2018 the 12 month average residential sale price for our area stood at $498,804 which represented a 4.7% increase over 2017.  As stated earlier herein, home sales in all area municipalities were down significantly in 2018 versus 2017 so without further investigation an "average" sale price increase of 4.7% year-over-year should be taken lightly until the cause for such an increase has been clearly determined.  The mix of properties that have sold in any period of time has a far greater impact on the average sale price than just increases or decreases in sale prices, shifts in the economy etc.  Case in point.  In 2008 there were just two MLS® home sales in Collingwood over $750,000.  In addition to these I sold a home for over $1 million which was not listed on the local MLS® system.  In 2018 MLS® residential sales over $750,000 in Collingwood totalled 49 properties, that is essentially 25 times the number of sales over $750,000 just ten years ago.  Whether you are buying or selling, pricing needs to be looked at carefully by area and property type.  This has never been more important than now.  The market has shifted, interest rates are expected to rise and both buyers and sellers need to be informed and prepared to make the right decisions.  This is a key element of the work and analysis that we as REALTORS® need to provide our clients.

  During 2018 we continued to see a strong demand for properties in specific price segments of the market.  Sales in the $300,000 to $499,999 price range is the "sweet spot" if you will of our market with sales in 2018 totalling 861 units.  This price range is the segment where inventory has been lacking as these sales were down 15% from the 1,018 MLS® sales reported in 2017.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to find much in our market area for less than $300,000.  Sales last year between $100,000 to $299,999 were down 39% with 318 sales for the year compared to 523 in 2017.  Sales in the $500,000 to $799,999 segment remained strong in 2018 down just 7% from one year ago with 465 MLS® sales in 2018 versus 498 in the prior year.

  Where we continue to see growth in residential property sales is at the higher-end of the market, homes priced $750,000 and up.  A growing segment of the local real estate market is for luxury homes and condos.  While this part of the market softened somewhat in 2018, we still saw 189 MLS® sales reported over $750,000 in 2018, down 23% from 245 sales in this price range in 2017 but 170% more than just 82 sales over $750,000 back five years ago in 2014.  See my Luxury Home & Condominium Market Report on the Luxury Homes page of my personal real estate website for more details.                 

   

   As previously started we have seen an overall decrease in MLS® listing activity from 2016 through 2018.  Many sellers were prepared to sell as with a sharp increase in multiple offers, properties selling for over their listed prices and a shortage of properties for sale it was indeed a "seller's market."   The problem was finding a replacement home or condominium to purchase at a fair price was a tall order.  As such many sellers decided to stay put and wait until the market became less hectic.  At this time we have seen an up tick in the number of properties coming onto our MLS® system as overall activity moves towards a more balanced state, levelling the market somewhat for sellers and buyers alike.  As shown on the charts above, annual real estate activity starts to ramp up in January and typically peaks in May or June before beginning to trend downwards in early summer.  This includes both sales as well as listing activity.

Summary Conclusion

  As we head into 2019 there is every reason to remain optimistic about the demand for southern Georgian Bay area property.  We are still in the early stages of having people move to this area and there are three main reasons driving this migration.  First, the recreational amenities here has established the area as Ontario's true four season playground.  This is attracting retirees as well as full time residents looking for an alternative lifestyle where they can essentially work from home and commute to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) a day or two a week or as needed.  For those looking for a recreational secondary property, the choices here are many and prices are significantly more affordable than places such as Muskoka.  Home prices in Toronto have escalated to the point where even a modest entry level home is approaching the $1 million mark which makes pricing in our area looks much more favourable.

  So what's the downside  First, sales in Toronto and other parts of the GTA have also softened no doubt for the same reason we have seen a market slow down here.  These are strong feeder markets for this area with many buyers coming from Toronto and or the surrounding area.  Interest rates have crept up and tighter lending rules have made securing financing increasingly difficult to obtain especially for first time buyers.  The good news is this has already served to slow down the crazy pace we experienced in 2016 and 2017 when multiple offers and skyrocketing sale prices were making it increasingly difficult for the average consumer to enter the market comfortably.

  Personally I remain optimistic about 2019 and beyond.  Buyers acquire property in this area because they "want" to not because they "have" to.  A slowdown in market activity can be a good thing for sellers and buyers alike.  The biggest threat perhaps looming which could impact real estate across the country is the level of debt being carried by many Canadian families.  From 2000 to  2017 real estate values across Canada have essentially tripled, far outpacing income growth.  While our economy has performed well, many economists attribute that to strong consumer spending.  Low interest (mortgage) rates have contributed to sharp increases in real estate sales and prices.  Add to this home renovation spending, the purchases of new furniture, appliances along with new vehicles etc. and the debt burden of many may have reached their limit.  Consumer debt in Canada is now said to be over $2.1 trillion.  Real estate sales in Alberta and Saskatchewan are feeling the impact of falling oil prices and General Motors decision to close their Oshawa Ontario assembly plant will affect not only GM workers but those of their various suppliers as well.    

  The fundamentals of the Canadian economy remain strong which bodes well for our real estate market moving forward.  A market correction such as what we have witnessed in 2018 can only serve to stabilize the dynamics of buying and selling real estate for consumers creating a level playing field between both buyers and sellers.  As both a REALTOR® and the owner of two properties myself I play close attention to what is going on as it is the best way for me to serve my valued clients.  I sold my own home in Collingwood last year as my significant other and I decided it was time to consolidate our real estate into one principal residence.......hers!  I already own a summer cottage and following the sale of my home we purchased together another waterfront property on which we hope to build a home in two or three years. 

  Despite a slowdown in market activity last year, I am happy to report that 2018 was a year of record sales for our Brokerage, Royal LePAGE Locations North.  Sales for our Brokerage totalled just over $288 million.  We have the highest market share in four of the five municipalities we serve, Clearview 26%, Collingwood 32%, Meaford 36%, the Blue Mountains 26% and as a relative newcomer to Wasaga Beach we have quickly become the 3rd busiest real estate office there.   

  If I can be of any help in assisting you with making your real estate buying and or selling decisions I would be delighted to share my experience and knowledge with you.  In the meantime best wishes for 2019 and I will continue to provide monthly reports on the status of real estate activity and other related matters in the months ahead.

  A full copy of my Georgian Triangle Real Estate Market Report 2018 Year In Review is available to download from my personal real estate website www.rickcrouch.realtor.

November 2018 - Southern Georgian Bay Real Estate Synopsis

  Sales results for the southern Georgian Bay real estate market are now out for the month of November and show a slight increase in dollar volume for the month versus at the end of November 2017 but with that is a continuation of weaker unit sales that we have seen throughout most of 2018.

  Sales reported through the MLS® system of  the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® for November reflect a modest 2% gain in dollar sales revenue for the month totalling $75.3 million versus $73.9 million in November 2017.  At the same time, MLS® unit sales in November of 134 properties shows a 12% decline from the same month last year when 153 sales were reported.  Ironically the number of new listings coming to market in November increased 8% with 183 properties coming onto the market compared to 170 new listings in the same month last year.  Nonetheless this increase in available inventory coming onto the market as we approach the holiday season is no doubt "to little to late" to bolster overall the sales shortfall for 2018.

  After two years of back-to-back annual MLS® sales in 2016 and 2017 that surpassed $1 billion for the first time in each of those years, sales volume for 2018 is going to come in below the level we saw in 2017.  Year-to-date MLS® dollar sales to the end of November totals $880.2 million, a decrease of 14% from $1.025 billion in MLS® listings sold during the first 11 months of 2017.  These year-to-date results for 2018 are also below the results we had in 2016 both in terms of dollars and the number of properties sold.  With the holiday season being a priority for many, December is traditionally a slow month for real estate sales and listing activity.  Monthly sales in December are typically below $50 million, this would suggest total annual MLS® sales across our market for 2018 will be in the $925 +/- million range.

 MLS® Single family home and condo unit sales are both running at a similar pace and are well below the number of properties sold through the first 11 months of 2017.  Year-to-date single family home sales total 1,352 units down 18% from 1,656 sold in the same period last year.  At the same time condo sales of 414 units are also down 18% from last year when 503 units we sold.  In both cases it is important to point out that new home and condo sales made by developers are not included in these MLS® statistics some of which would account for the softer sales of MLS® resale properties this year.  Vacant residential land sales are well below the number sold in 2017 primarily due to a lack of available lots listed for sale.

  Sales in most price segments of our market are lower than 2017.  Two exceptions to this is the $800,000 to $1 million range where year-to-date sales of 91 properties are up by 4 sales from one year ago.  In addition, sales over $2 million are also up modestly with 14 sales reported in 2018 compared to 11 in 2017.  As per the accompanying chart every other segment of the market is running at a pace below last year.  In conjunction with this, every municipality in our region has seen a decline in the number of MLS® single family home sales this year with decreased unit sales running 13% to 22% below the number of homes sold through MLS® in 2017.

  In many segments of the market, reduced levels of inventory have also created a slowdown in sales activity during 2018.  Since September there has been an uptick in new MLS® listing activity but on a year-to-date basis new MLS® listings which total 3,031 properties are still 5% below the number of new listings that came to market in 2017.  Again when you take an in-depth look at the year-to-date MLS® statistics there are always exceptions to the overall results.  In terms of inventory, our market currently has an abundance of properties listed for sale priced $750,000 and above.  As of this article we have just over 14 months of available inventory for sale priced above $750,000 so there are plenty of options for buyers in this price range and some good value to be had.

  Overall, 2018 has brought about a much more balanced market.  The frenzied bidding wars we experienced in 2016 and early 2017 have sharply diminished leading to much more favourable and less stressful market conditions for sellers and buyers alike and we are not alone.  Real estate activity in the Greater Toronto Area has also slowed as it also has in large urban centres such as Oakville, Guelph, Cambridge, Kitchener/Waterloo, London and elsewhere.  These are all strong feeder markets for southern Georgian Bay real estate.  A cooling off of market conditions in our region and elsewhere was bound to happen some of which is driven by increased mortgage interest rates and tighter lending rules.

  The demand for southern Georgian Bay real estate has not diminished.  Whether it is for retirement or recreational use, people still favour the varied four season lifestyle afforded  by property ownership in this area and this is not a trend that is likely to disappear anytime soon. 

  As we head into 2019, sales activity will ramp back up as it always does heading into the spring.  How much the market rebounds in 2019 over what we have experienced in 2018 is any one's guess.  There has never been a better time to consult a local REALTOR®,  one with extensive knowledge of this area and current market conditions to assist you with your real estate buying and or selling goals and objectives.  Contact me and I would be delighted to provide any of my followers with a no obligation consultation of your particular buying and or selling needs. 

October 2018 Market Report, Final Comments

  As stated in my post dated November 11th and titled "Area Real Estate Sales Continue to Remain Soft in 2018" I pushed the notion that paying attention to statistical data is a key element in helping our valued real estate clients make informed decisions.  As November draws to a close and the monthly results are known, I suspect we will have some better insight into what the next couple of years will bring, in the meantime let's take one final look at what has happened in the first 10 months of 2018.

  Year-to-date MLS unit sales are running 19% behind 2017 and this decrease is equally shared in both the single family home and condominium segments of the market.  Through the end of October we have seen 1,256 single family home sales, a decrease of 18.6% from last year.  Condominium sales year-to-date for the first 10 months of 2018 total 375 units and similarly to home there too are down 18.8%. 

  Meanwhile, vacant land sales are down over 65% this year with 100 units sold compared to 293 sales in the first 10 months of 2017.  While the overall inventory of properties available to purchase remains below last year, nowhere is this more evident than with vacant lots.  The glut of lots for sale from a couple of years ago are gone and no newly created lots/subdivisions have come on stream to replenish those lots that have sold and now have homes under construction.

  The obvious question after reviewing the softer MLS sales data for many real estate market across Canada is, what is the cause and how will this downturn in real estate sales impact us moving forward in 2019, 2020 and beyond? 

  First, we all need to acknowledge that Canada's real estate market is somewhat unique to other parts of the globe.  Given the market strength that Canadian real estate has demonstrated for many years, we are viewed by many countries as having a fascination with real estate and or home ownership regardless of the cost or overall economic climate.  In most markets across the country, real estate values have tripled between 2000 to 2017 far out pacing the increase in annual incomes during the same period. Yes our market did slow down after the collapse of the U.S. real estate market through 2007 to 2009 but not nearly to the extent of our neighbours to the south.  Real estate activity in Ontario started to rebound strongly in early 2010 the year in which the province implemented the harmonized sales tax (HST).  Many in the province had the impression that home purchases under the new HST tax structure were going to be HST taxable and they rushed to buy.  In some circumstances HST can apply to the purchase of a new home and in even a resale but that is more of an exception than the rule.

  There is no question that low interest mortgages in recent years have helped to fuel the housing craze we have experienced.  Multiple offers, with properties often selling for over their highly inflated list prices became the norm.  Low interest mortgage have allowed buyers to spend more on a home they perhaps intended.  Sooner or later that craze had to end, interest rates would rise as they have and other economic drivers would come into play all of which would impact the real estate market and other segments of the economy.  This week's announcement by General Motors Canada is a good example.  Some couples with both the husband and wife working may now be faced with raising a family and paying down debt as a one versus two income family and it's not just the auto industry that will create this, the oil and gas industry currently faces its own set of problems. While situations such as this is not a pleasant scenarios it is reality and it will no doubt have an impact on real estate and other aspects of our economy in the months or years ahead. 

  Only time will tell, November's market statistics will be out shortly.  Stay tuned and follow my blog for ongoing market reports and other information that I will post to help you make information decisions about you specific real estate needs and or goals.  For details on the luxury home and condominium market in our area see my Carriage Trade Homes blog.