Collingwood General and Marine Hospital Redevelopment

  As a former candidate for Collingwood Council in the last municipal election, I have continued to follow the activities of the current Council. While I may not agree with every decision they have made, overall I feel they have done a good job of making sound, rational choices regarding the future of the community.

  Over the past few months I have followed the ongoing saga regarding the hospital re-development process and I did attend the recent public meeting at the Georgian Bay Hotel.  The media has published numerous stories about the alleged adversarial relationship that has existed between the Town and the hospital Board.  The hospital Board has seemingly been casting aspersions about Council's failure to support the Board's choice of Poplar Sideroad as the best if not only location on which to build a new facility.

  I do not profess to be an expert on this situation but my observations lead me to believe it is the hospital Board and not the Town that has impeded the process of advancing our case for a new medical facility with the Ministry of Health.  There is no question that our current hospital is struggling to keep up with the demands of the community and will continue to do so as more and more ageing Ontarians retire here.  From everything I have seen and read, the hospital Board seems to have been focused solely on location (Poplar Sideroad) versus selling the Ministry on the need for a new facility here.  It is my understanding that ultimately the Ministry of Health decides on location anyway so why spend time advocating one and only one location when it's not your call to begin with?  As with any effective sales pitch selling "why" something is needed comes first and in this case the "where" is secondary.

  Apparently I am not alone in my thinking. An article published on Simcoe.com titled "Planner tells Collingwood Hospital Board: stop being combative criticises the Board for have a combative attitude when it comes to their preferred site.  In this article land use planner Don May is critical of the hospital Board's position on the Poplar Sideroad location and the adversarial approach they have taken in defending this location as their preferred site.

  There is no doubt that we need a new and or an expanded hospital in the area.  Needing one and getting one are two very different matters.  Let's face it, we are not the only community in Ontario that is facing challenges when it come to health care.   Every level of government including the Province is cash strapped, there is only so much money to go around and $300 to $400 million for a new hospital is not money that is just lying there for the taking.  On top of that millions of dollars in road improvements would be needed on Poplar Sideroad to create the appropriate access to a new medical facility there.

  When I ran for Collingwood Council one aspect of my platform was that many of the issues facing this area are "regional" in nature.  Economic development, transportation and yes health care all need a regional approach to find the proper and affordable solutions,  One group in Collingwood wants the General and Marine hospital to remain where it is while the hospital Board wants a new facility on Popular Sideroad.  Meanwhile, Wasaga Beach has offered "free" land hoping to attract a new hospital there.  That is not working collaboratively for the better good of the region, it's municipality versus municipality playing for the spoils and unless something changes and soon, we will not see a new hospital here in my lifetime and or perhaps yours.

Annual MLS® Dollar Sales Up 34% Year-To-Date

  Area real estate sales reached a new high in 2016 when for the first time, MLS® sales across Southern Georgian Bay broke the $1 billion barrier setting the stage for record sales again in 2017.  Attaining this however was seemingly in jeopardy stemming from the fact that new listings coming to market on the MLS® system of the Southern Georgian Bay Association of REALTORS® have been well below what is needed to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demand for area real estate.  Despite the fact that new MLS® listings are down 16% to the end of May,  MLS® dollar sales  thus far in 2017 are running 34% ahead of 2016 with year-to-date sales to the end of May totalling $519.3 million.  In essence year-to-date sales are at 52% of last year and we are less than 42% into the year so another $1 billion plus year would appear to be in the offing.

 

  The shortage of listing inventory is however impacting unit sales.  MLS® unit sales to the end of May total 1,139 properties, an increase of 6% from one year ago when 1,070 sales were reported.  The disparity between MLS® dollar sales being up 34% while MLS® unit sales are only up 6% stems from two reasons. 

  First, sales at the upper end of the market are running well ahead of 2016.  Single family home sales between $500,000 and $800,000 are up 63% to the end of May with 221 sales reported compared to 136 in 2016.  Sales between $800,000 and $1 million total 49 properties an increase of 75% over last year.  Lastly, MLS® sales above the $1 million mark are up an astounding 146% to the end of May with 59 sales reported in 2017 versus just 24 sales in the first five months of last year.  As one would expect, these significant increases in the sale of upper end properties are having a profound affect on driving MLS® dollar sales  at a time when MLS® unit sales are increasing only marginally.  This increase in the upper price ranges of the market is also having a impact on the "average" single family home price in the area which is why changes in "average" prices can be so misleading.  As of the end of May, the 12-month year-to-date average MLS® single family home price for our area has increased almost 35% in large part due to the substantial increases we are experiencing at the upper end of the market.  

 

  Another key issue driving the increase in MLS® dollar sales this year are the prices being paid across our region.  Multiple offers, once somewhat of a rarity in this market have now become quite commonplace.  When a listed property receives multiple offers, the final sale price is all but guaranteed to be at the full list price or in many cases higher.  A small condo listed for sale earlier this year in Collingwood attracted 17 offers and sold for $202,000 versus the listed price of $169,000.  Similarly, a single family home sold for $517,500, 29% over the $399,900 asking price.   Typically the average sale-to-list price ratio for properties sold through the local MLS® system has been about 95%.  This has now increased to 97%+ stemming from the  strong prices that sellers have been able to get in the current market.

   Year-to-date sales across the region vary greatly from municipality to municipality.  Total single family home sales are actually down 4% overall to the end of May.   Single family home sales in the Blue Mountains however are up 38% while in Grey Highlands, single family home sales are up a more modest 14% followed by Meaford  showing a 6% increase in home sales.  All other area municipalities however are posting decreases in year-to-date single family home sale activity.  Sales in Collingwood are down 9%, single family home sales in Wasaga Beach are down 14% followed by Clearview Township with 12% decrease year over year.  Keep in mind these numbers do not reflect new home sales made by developers which typically do not go through the MLS® system.  Many new home developments in the area are experiencing strong sales activity thus picking up the resale market slack where shortages in MLS® listings are leaving buyers no choice but to buy new.

  Total MLS® condo sales are up a modest 8% year-to-date with 233 units sold compared to 216 last year.  Meanwhile, MLS® vacant land sales have surged ahead 69% this year with 210 sales reported through the end of May compared to 124 one year ago.   For many buyers in this area the ability to build exactly what they want is attractive but the lack of available housing listed for sale on the local MLS® system is obviously having some impact here as well.

   As we head into the final seven months of 2017 we are already seeing a shift in the market.  While the demand for area properties remains strong, the frequency of multiple offers with sale prices well over asking and the hyper activity that we have experienced in the first five months of 2017 appears to be waning.  This may only be temporary but the real estate market in the Barrie area and the GTA is undergoing the same transition which in turn will impact market activity here.  This may not be a bad thing leading to a more balanced and sustainable market long term.